A 2-5 mark isn’t what anyone was expecting or wants to ever see. With a team loaded with talent on offense and a defense that showed promise at the end of last season, the arrow was pointing up. When you are 2-5 at the half-way mark in the season, it is hard to argue that the arrow is still pointing up. Nonetheless here is an attempt to prove that it still might be.
Going into week 9, FiveThirtyEight gives the Bucs a 2% chance of making the playoffs, and less than 1% at winning the division. The positive side is? There are 5 divisional games left, which will play a big role in dictating who will play in January from the NFC South. Outside of divisional games, the Bucs play 2 teams above and 2 below .500. When you include remaining divisional games, it gets grimmer with 7 teams above and 2 below .500.
If the Bucs can win the rest of their divisional games and go 3-1 in non-divisional games, the Bucs would sit at 10-6 and a good chance at the playoffs. A more realistic outcome is going 3-2 for the remaining divisional games and 2-2 in non-divisional games. In which the Bucs will land at 7-9, and miss the playoffs. The fact of the matter is that there are an infinite number of scenarios, but only a handful that include a post-season berth. With that said, in the revised words of Jim Carrey, “I’m telling you, there’s a chance.”