The bill has come due for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
After kicking the can down the road while chasing Super Bowls with the greatest quarterback of all time at the helm, it was only a matter of time before reworked contracts with deferred money would come due. Everyone knew it. And, with a Super Bowl banner flying at Raymond James Stadium and Tom Brady’s jersey number to also adorn the rafters one day, it was absolutely worth it.
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But now, it’s time to appreciate that past while accepting the reality of the current situation. And that is this team is going to have a very hard time adding productivity from outside the current roster to improve upon what was a disappointing 2022 season.
Sure, there will be the draft to infuse some young talent and hopefully address some glaring holes in this roster, but the prospects of finding players who can make an immediate and significant impact seems to be a long shot for the cap-saddled Bucs.
That proves to be especially true at edge for the Bucs. Difference-making pass rushers don’t grow on trees. Fortunately the Buccaneers will get a good one back this fall, as Shaq Barrett should return from his Achilles injury hopefully by the start of the regular season. However, exactly when he will be ready is currently unknown. His effectiveness coming off such a debilitating injury at the age of 30 remains to be seen as well.
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As such, it’s time for Joe Tryon-Shoyinka to finally live up to his first-round billing. There’s no one left to bail him out or take the pressure off of him. Carl Nassib is a free agent and while the Buccaneers would likely be interested in bringing him back, he remains unsigned as of mid-April. Cam Gill returns from a Lisfranc injury that sidelined him last year, but he’s merely a depth player and special teams contributor. Anthony Nelson is a good run-stopping OLB that won’t reach double-digits sacks.
What do the numbers say about Tryon-Shoyinka as a pass rusher last season? According to Pro Football Focus, in 448 pass rushing snaps in 2022, he managed to generate a total of 48 total pressure plays. That breaks down to 5 sacks, 11 QB hits, and 32 QB hurries.
As with anything else in the league, a player is only as good as compared to what those in similar positions do. Matthew Judon tallied 17 sacks, 14 hits, and 38 hurries in 480 pass rushing snaps. Khalil Mack totaled 9 sacks, 6 hits, and 44 hurries in 518 pass rushing snaps. Bradley Chubb went for 10/14/30 in 471. Za’Darius Smith posted 10/15/55 in 528. His teammate, Danielle Hunter, totaled 13/12/51 in 605. Haason Reddick went for 21/13/53 in 512. Trey Hendrickson had 9/19/46 in 456. Myles Garrett posted 18/8/47 in 490. Nick Bosa totaled 19/31/48 in 595. Brian Burns put up 13/11/44 in 525. Maxx Crosby totaled 15/22/44 in 650. And Micah Parsons totaled an absurd 15/17/74 in 577.
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Those are the numbers from the 2023 Pro Bowl edge players, not counting TJ Watt, who missed 7 weeks with injury. As far as the percentage of plays where Tryon-Shoyinka generated pressure, his 10.7% is not particularly far from the lower end of those players listed above. And this is not to say that he’s in the same tier as any of those players. Right now, he’s obviously not. However, it’s worth noting that his percentage of creating pressure in 2022 was higher than Shaq Barrett’s 10.4% (22 in 211 snaps) before Barrett was lost for the season, so it wasn’t just a case of Tryon-Shoyinka being the weak link on the line; pressure was subpar from both of the Buccaneers’ starting edges last season.
However, Barrett’s productivity and contribution to this franchise over the past several seasons is beyond reproach. It’s time for #9 to begin to live up to his considerable physical tools and potential.
And Tryon-Shoyinka might not be as far as some think in reaching the level of productivity of the aforementioned stars of the league. Warren Sapp quoted Tony Dungy as saying there’s five plays in a football game that will determine the game. It doesn’t take much; a single play can change the outcome.
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If Tryon-Shoyinka can increase his pressure by one per game, then – using a figure of 500 pass rushing snaps as a basis he would increase his pressure percentage from 10.7% to 13.2%, which would compare to some of the aforementioned edge rushers. That’s not an unreasonable bar to set, and would be a significant step forward for the rising third-year player. If he can get to that figure, then an increase to 7 or 8 sacks would also be a reasonable expectation.
With so much uncertainty on the edges right now, such a modest step forward could result in a sizable footprint for the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneer defense.
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