The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are once again being overlooked in 2024. After most big media outlets predicted the Bucs would be one of the worst teams in the NFL last season, they were all proven wrong after the team brought the division crown back to Tampa for a third straight year. Now as we head into a new season many of these same analysts haven’t learned from their mistakes.
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Many are projecting the Bucs to be middle of the pack or worse this year. The word regression has been carelessly thrown around without much context. This is odd to me considering that almost all key players are returning and the Bucs brought in a very good draft as well as a few key free agents.
So what is it that has so many agreeing about the Buccaneers when most things point to the team taking a step forward as opposed to a step back? The thing that I hear most commonly is the departure of offensive coordinator Dave Canales and Baker Mayfield turning back into a pumpkin as the clock strikes midnight. Most still aren’t ready to buy into Mayfield stock.
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To be honest, I don’t totally blame them for that line of thinking. After all, Mayfield has always been an average to below average quarterback and his best season came under Canales who has a history of developing quarterbacks. However, I believe those assumptions are off base.
I think the key to the Canales-Mayfield success was the offensive system they ran. It was the same system Canales learned in Seattle under offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. This would be what is known as the Sean McVay offense.
That system is still in place, even though Canales is gone. The Bucs hired Liam Coen, another McVay disciple, to replace Canales and build on the success they had last season. And while there will be some differences and changes, the bones of what made Mayfield successful last year are very much still in place.
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Not only that, but the already good supporting cast around him has only gotten stronger. The additions of rookie offensive lineman Graham Barton and rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan will give him more protection and more options to throw to. Not to mention development from last year’s rookie guard Cody Mauch.
So this leads me to wonder what exactly Mayfield will do in his second season in Tampa Bay. Last year I predicted a career best year for the then journeyman quarterback. Of course, that’s exactly what happened.
This season, I am doubling down on last year’s prediction. I think Mayfield will set a new career high in passing yards for the second year in a row. While touchdown passes can be unpredictable, I think he will be close to the same as last year either in the high twenties or low thirties.Â
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To put specific numbers to it, here is my estimate on Mayfield’s stat line.
4,280 yards, 33 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions.
If Mayfield can do that, or at least something close to that, then we should all expect another playoff run this season. Seeing as how he has always been very consistent with his level of play, I believe this is a fair expectation going into year two in Tampa Bay.
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