Should the Addition of Matthew Judon Worry the Buccaneers

In a few days, Buccaneers divisional rivals the Atlanta Falcons managed to swing a splashy trade for Matthew Judon and an equally splashy signing of free agent Justin Simmons. Mainstream media is clamoring at these additions and already anointing the Falcons NFC South Champions. But do these additions improve the Falcons’ defense that much? Well here are some key numbers for Judon that may tell the story.

Addition of Judon

Matthew Judon comes over to the Falcons via trade, a third-round selection in 2025, to play the starting Will Linebacker role. First, let’s assume the worst-case scenario. Let’s assume Judon returns to 2022 stature. Many players have returned from the same injury he had and competed at previous levels. So that means he should provide around the same statistical value he did for the Patriots in 2022. Those numbers are as follows. Sacks: 15.5, combined tackles: 60, tackles for loss: 14, quarterback hits: 28, pass deflections: 3, and forced fumbles: 2. Substantial numbers. Any team would be happy to have those for a third-round selection.

Now to understand how much Atlanta gains from this addition we need to look at who he is replacing. In this case, it’s Calais Campbell. In his lone season with the Falcons, he provided the following. Sacks: 6.5, combined tackles: 56, tackles for loss: 10, quarterback hits: 17, pass deflections: 1, and forced fumbles: 1. It’s clear here that Judon’s numbers are far better. So from the standpoint of player-to-player comparison, the Falcons vastly improved.

But there are other factors to consider.

Opposite Linebacker Position

As we look over the production of the Judon to Campbell we also have to take into consideration the rest of the defensive line. The Falcons also lost Bud Dupree. He provided similar stats to Campbell. Importantly he notched 6.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, 8 quarterback hits, 3 pass deflections, and 2 forced fumbles. That’s not too bad and helped the Falcons’ defense land 11th in the league in yards allowed.

Unfortunately, Dupree’s replacement pool is limited. Arnold Ebiketie looks to take on his role instead of providing strong depth. I fully expect him to be able to take on this challenge and possibly be one of the break-out defensive stars of the league this year. Last season he had six sacks in limited playing time, 34% of defensive snaps. Now this isn’t set in stone as we have seen break-out defenders whose limited playing time inflated their capability. Once offensive coordinators and players have more tape on an individual the better prepared the offense. So essentially he is going to have to prove it.

But, behind him are Lorenzo Carter and James Smith Williams. Now, I would fully expect these players to contribute like they did last season as only rotational players. This means the Falcons are thin depth-wise at outside linebacker spots.

Snap Count

In New England Judon, in his last full season of 2022, posted a high snap count of 860 snaps. That accounted for 76% of the defensive snaps. Campbell had 712 for 63% of defensive snaps. A number that should reflect Judon’s usage in the Falcon’s scheme and drive some of his stats down. Dupree had 724 for 68% and those snaps now go to Ebiketie. Looking over the numbers of the other players also indicates that the Falcons rotate in players more frequently in the linebacker corps than the Patriots did. So don’t expect Judon to have a season snap count nearly as high as 2022.

Final Thought

Looking at the numbers there are a lot of things in play. Judon shows he will provide better numbers than Campbell did so long as a few things hold true. First, does his usage equate to 2022’s? Would he be able to get accustomed to his team and fit in right away? Can he return to form after an injury and stay healthy? Can the new starters on the opposite side of him play to the level they are expected to replace? That’s a lot of ifs. These variables are hard to gauge but for now, on paper, Judon drastically improves this defensive line assuming all those other questions swing the right way for the Falcons and will pose a problem for the Buccaneers.