This Sunday the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will play host to the Washington Commanders in their opening game of the year. It’s a clean slate for every team, so whether you won a playoff game last year or picked number two in the draft everyone is starting fresh now. The road to the playoffs starts this weekend for everybody.
In theory, this should be a friendly start to the year for the Bucs. It’s at home against one of the worst teams in the NFL from last year. Even with a fresh start, you still expect there to be a gap between these two teams.
With that said, I do believe the Commanders will be significantly improved this year. A new coaching staff and a Heisman Trophy winning rookie quarterback really changed the feel of this entire Washington franchise. If you think the Bucs are just going to coast to an easy victory in this one then you’ve got another thing coming.
How can the Buccaneers start the season off strong and take care of business against an up and coming team? I break it down in this addition of Skeleton Keys To Victory.
Buccaneers Interior Must Pass Early Test
The defensive line has been Washington’s strength for several years. This is particularly true because of their defensive tackles. Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen make one of the best defensive line tandems in the NFL.
This will make a heck of a first game for rookie center Graham Barton. The first round pick out of Duke played mostly left tackle in college, but has made the switch to center for the Bucs. So far in training camp he has looked very promising.
It will also be our first look at Ben Bredeson at left guard and a beefed up Cody Mauch entering his second season at right guard. It will be the revamped interior’s first real game together, so we’ll see what they can do. Assuming they can prevent the Washington defensive line from running wild on Baker Mayfield then the Bucs should be in good shape.
Keep Tabs On The Rookie
Jayden Daniels had an incredible final season in college. He put up 3,812 passing yards, 1,134 rushing yards, 50 total touchdowns with just 4 interceptions and walked away with the Heisman Trophy last year. Now he brings all that talent to Washington to guide their franchise into the future.
Daniels is a very accurate pocket passer, but what makes him more dangerous than the average quarterback is his ability to run. He has excellent speed and can change the game with his legs on any given play. Keeping him contained in the pocket will be essential. This is manageable because Daniels is a pass first quarterback who wants to keep his eyes downfield first and foremost.
If the Bucs can keep him bottled up as a runner then you live with what Daniels does through the air. While this approach may suit his style just fine, I don’t believe Washington has enough weapons to support him. Even if Daniel’s plays well from the pocket, I don’t see that being enough to keep up with the Bucs offense.
A Conservative Approach
We all know how much Todd Bowles loves to blitz. He’s both creative and aggressive with this aspect of the game. However, that might not be the right approach in this game.
I really believe that this game will only be close if the Buccaneers allow big plays. Things like turnovers, blown coverages or allowing Daniels to break off big runs. Basically, if the risks of blitzing become reality then the Commanders will have a chance in this game.
So the natural solution is to eliminate a lot of the blitzing from the game plan. Sure, there is reward that goes with the risk, but as I said before I don’t think Washington can hang with the Bucs even if they don’t put pressure on Daniels.
Attack The Middle Areas
This Washington back seven isn’t particularly good. However, I trust their coaching staff enough to play multiple deep safeties to prevent Mike Evans from carving them up. I also trust the middle of this defense against the run with their defensive tackles as well as new middle linebacker Bobby Wagner.
Other than that, I can see this pass defense being leaky. I could see Rachaad White and Cade Otton having big days against Wagner in coverage. I also like the idea of Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan working in the slot (even though I really like Washington’s rookie nickel back Mike Sainristil).
The Bucs pass catchers are simply more talented than their opponents. It’s a good chance to break in this offense and pick apart an inferior opponent. Live in that 5-10 yard passing offense and I don’t think the Commanders can do much to stop this offense.
Prediction
Washington – 16
Buccaneers – 27
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