The Buccaneers Run Game And It’s Trajectory

Much was talked about before the beginning of this season with a large consensus on the Buccaneers and their need to improve the run game. So the team went out and drafted a new center in the first round and a new running back in the fourth round. Also, to ensure efficiency and add twists to the offense Liam Coen was brought in to run the show.

With these additions the staff here at Bucs Report have had high enough hopes that we believe this could be a top ten offense. Even some analyst here are predicting a top five offense. With week one in the books let’s see if the trajectory supports.

Now, it’s only the first week and the Buccaneers played a defense that ranked in the bottom ten in run defense last season. Yes the commanders have a new and better coach who brought in some of his old players but they are not going to improve that much. So as we look at these stats I try to keep grounded in the fact that any sign of improvement is good despite the level of opponents play.

So week one saw the run game lay down 112 yards on 30 attempts for an average carry of 3.7 yards. Not too shabby but is it trending in the right direction. Last season the Buccaneers averaged 3.4 yards a carry  (last in the league) and had an average yards per game of 88 yards. So the needled moved slightly but there are still some concerns.

On the surface the numbers looked better. Good enough to end week one at 17^th in the league in rushing and 24^th in the league in yards per carry. Both are good improvements in the metrics after only one week and show an upward direction. After all when your last in a category there is only one direction to move. Now I predicated that if the Buccaneers finish in the middle of the league in rushing they will have atop ten offense so these numbers are looking promising.

Unfortunately, there are somethings that stood out to me during the game and after while looking at the stats.  First, of the 19 first downs achieved only four came by way of rushing. Part of the reason is because the Buccaneers faced six yards or more on 10 of the 18 third downs they faced. This is due in part to the fact that the average yards to go on third down for the Buccaneers was 5.9 yards to go. Removing the third and 18 they faced later in the game and the average is still 5.2 yards to go. If your only averaging 3.7 yards a carry and needing five or more yards on third your going to rely on the passing game.

Second, Baker Mayfield accounted for 18% of the total yards rushed during week one. Scrambling, Baker rushed for 21 yards in an attempts to keep drives alive. He did well in doing so but it’s never a comfortable feeling when the quarterback needs to do this in order to retain possession.

Third, and maybe one of the biggest issues was Rachaad White only averaged 2.1 yards a carry. A far cry from where he needs to be. Scary enough  it’s a complete 1.5 yards below his average last season. If you remove his blistering 15 yard run it gets far worse at only one yard per attempt. ONE! Not a good start to the season.

Bucky Irving rolled into week one and set a tone. With nine rushes he gained 62 yards. His longest, a 31 yard gem, was amazing. This gave him a skewed 6.9 yards a carry. Now,  if you remove this giant gain from his numbers he sits at 3.4 yards a carry. A much better average than one yard a carry. If White continues to struggle and Irving’s play is solid there may be a shift in carries very soon.

Don’t panic. It’s only week one, but this is something to keep an eye on. In order to be a more effective offense this team needs to cut down hard on the yards to go on third down so they have more plays they can utilize, to include the run game. After knocking off the rust I fully expect the run game to improve and contribute much more as the season progresses. So we will keep tabs on this from week to week over here at Bucs Report.