Changing the Buccaneers Offensive Approach On First Down

There have been some good things and some bad from the Buccaneers offense this season and after three weeks there are some small adjustments that could be made to spur better play. Taking a look at a few key stats indicates where the team has been strong and where it hasn’t. So here’s a look a some shifts Liam Coen can make.

Situationally on first downs, 73 total plays, the Buccaneers have run 44 times to the 27 times they have called a pass play. This imbalance in numbers makes it almost two times as likely the team will run the ball, something defensive coordinators can then hone in on. But the numbers indicate that the team is far more successful when passing on  first down. Baker Mayfield has completed 22 of 27 for 81.5% pass completion percentage and an average yards per attempt of 8.9 yards. Meanwhile,  rushing has gained on average 3.4 yards per attempt on first down. A more balanced approach will keep defenses from pinning their ears back to stop the run. This will also allow for the run game to improve to an extent as defenses will have to respect the possibility of the pass.

Some of the abysmal numbers attributed to first don runs is due in part to Rachaad Whites struggles. Averaging two yards per carry on first downs through 21 attempts is damaging to momentum. This leaves the team in second and long situations that to an extent minimize the play book for the offense. Especially if they are facing close to eight yards or more. Allowing Bucky Irving first down primary responsibility would go a long way to shortening the possessions on second down. With 18 attempts on first down Bucky has averaged 5.1 yards per carry and currently represents the better option of the two on first down situations.

There is something to be said about game planning to your teams strengths. Irving is proving to be an elusive runner with a knack to make tacklers miss. On the other end, White represents one of the most dynamic pass catching backs in the league. Currently sixth out of all running backs White has an 8.2 yards per catch average. So putting both players on the field more often during first downs leaves a defense guessing to what pay is coming and provides Coe to give multiple plays from the single formations. Both running backs on the field would complicate things on first downs and provide a great opportunity to increase the average yards gained thus shortening second down more often.

You won’t see the run pass option utilized very often in this offense but it’s proven to be successful when it is.  Looking through the splits Mayfield has had a passer rating of 135.6 on RPO plays. The nine total pass plays the team has achieved two touchdowns and four first downs. Coupling this with both running backs in formation provides a running option in Irving and a dynamic pass option in White that would act as a formidable play call that should leave defenses on their heels. It shouldn’t become a large fixture in the offense but needs to be added as a wrinkle from time to time.

The combination of the options mention above could really open up the offense. Especially on first down. When facing second and short NFL teams sit around 70-80% on achieving a subsequent first down. This is drive continuation, ball possession, and improving the chance of scoring greatly. If the Buccaneers converted even 10% more on third downs due to improvements on first down this team could add seven points to their average score each week. Now that doesn’t sound like much but it’s a great leap for any offense.