This game has both the unstoppable force vs an immovable object matchup and also the stoppable force vs the movable object. The Chiefs have the third best defense, Buccaneers have the 3rd best offense. But on the opposite side for both teams, it’s a different story.
The Chiefs actually have the 11th best offense somehow, but they have one of the worst run games and Patrick Mahomes has more picks than TDs. The Bucs meanwhile have the 27th worst defense and have let teams run all over them all season (although they have also faced some of the league’s best running backs).
For this Bucs defense, they need to get the takeaways. Mahomes has been pretty unlucky with his picks, but that needs to continue. It’s one of the ways this defense can actually do something. Because, let’s face it, Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce will likely go off. Kelce hasn’t been great this season, but with K.J. Britt in the lineup, he will do well. Plus, he probably feels motivated to go off because of that asshole insulting him to his brother’s face. The run game for the Chiefs is a giant pile of meh, so I don’t imagine that will be a huge factor. I see this and now Kareem Hunt will get 200 yards.
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Now on offense is when things get interesting. The Chiefs have the second best rushing defense while the Bucs have the 4th best running game. Despite the Chiefs really good run defense, the Bucs absolutely need to run the ball early and late. They cannot let themselves get away from it like they did against the Falcons. Just in general, the Bucs’ offense needs to not shoot themselves in the foot.
The Chiefs offense isn’t great, so to give them a short field would be one of the few ways to let the Chiefs get into this game. Baker Mayfield cannot be throwing the ball 40-50 times in this game, not with the secondary on the other side. While the Chiefs aren’t getting takeaways themselves, Baker has had a lot of throws that have been and should’ve been picked the past few weeks.
What this game will come down to is who messes up more. Whatever team makes more mistakes will lose. And unfortunately, the Bucs have been the team to make the most mistakes. The Chiefs have the interceptions, but outside that, they have played safe, efficient football. If the Buccaneers can force them outside of that comfort zone, they have a chance. But Baker cannot throw two interceptions and expect to win the game.
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