There will be two streaks that are going against each other tonight, one I didn’t know about until recently. The Buccaneers have won the last two regular season games against the Cowboys. This wouldn’t include the 2022 Wildcard Game. However, Baker Mayfield has lost his last 8 primetime starts, which isn’t a great omen. One streak will be broken tonight.
The Cowboys’ defense is not very good, so let’s get that out of the way. At least the Bucs defense has some positives. The only thing the Cowboys have done well on defense is not allowing third down conversions.
Obviously the Bucs have been some of the best in the NFL at converting 3rd downs, so that will be a battle to watch. But the Bucs will not only be facing a bad secondary, they will be facing them without Trevon Diggs. A big loss for the team. Baker will hopefully be able to dissect the secondary with the help of Mike Evans. The Cowboys defense is far weaker (on paper at least) than the Chargers, so hopefully more points can be had.
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If you had to worry about any one player on the Cowboys defense, it is arguably Micah Parsons. Even if he is playing through illness, he is not someone to take lightly. He definitely has the capacity to change games and his presence was felt against the Bucs in 2022. Now, both Goedeke and Wirfs have had fantastic seasons at tackle. This will be one of their toughest tests, if not the toughest test for them (which is terrifying after facing Maxx Crosby not too long ago).
For the Bucs defense, they have two players they really need to key in on. Ceedee Lamb and Rico Dowdle. Lamb is probably a fairly obvious one. He has been a fantastic receiver for his entire NFL career. But Dowdle might not be that familiar. Well, for most the year the Cowboys run game was abysmal, and then it wasn’t. The big reason for why is because Dowdle had been catching fire.
The last three games against the Giants, Bengals, and Panthers he has gotten over 100 yards and over 5 ypc. Now, you may be saying well that’s against teams with bad run defenses. And y’all, I don’t mean to alarm you, but even if that’s true, the Bucs are one of those teams with bad run defenses. It has gone somewhat unnoticed because of the injured and bad secondary, but the run defense has also been really bad. They’re 22nd in ypc allowed, even after bottling up the Chargers 2nd string back.
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Like most the games to end the season, this should be a game the Buccaneers have the advantage in, despite missing a ton of players (not even worth pointing out how injured we are since it’s been like that every week). The only thing that gives me pause is that the team never seems to look good in primetime. But regardless of that, the Cowboys have been mediocre to bad for most the season, even when they had Dak playing. I know I spent a minute hyping up two of their players on offense, but the unit as a whole isn’t particularly good.
Again, when you’re led by Cooper Rush, not the most unexpected thing. And somehow, they are even worse when forced to play at home. The Buccaneers did not receive a lot of help for the playoffs with the Falcons and Commanders winning, but they don’t have to worry about that if they just win here and win one more.
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