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The NFC South, home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers

Way Too Early NFC South Record Predictions

May 2, 2025

The dust from the NFL draft is settling and we now have a pretty clear picture of what these rosters will look like next season. There will be a few minor additions in the second week of free agency, but most teams are basically set in who they have. This means we can start to form educated opinions about these teams.

While this website focuses on mainly the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it’s also important to keep an eye on the rest of the division. These are the teams that the Bucs will play six times this season and the teams they will be competing with for a guaranteed home playoff game. What the rosters of the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints look like will ultimately affect the Buccaneers as well.

So I took a step back from my Bucs focus and took a look at all of the teams in the NFC South. I evaluated their rosters, considered their opponents this year and projected the record for each team. Here are my way too early NFC South record predictions.

New Orleans Saints: 4-13

The Saints are nothing short of a mess. The stars they have relied on heavily in the past are aging out of the league. Their draft picks have been up and down at best, but in reality there have been more misses than hits in recent years. And of course, their cap situation is one of the worst in the NFL.

We also don’t know what to expect from the quarterback position. Derek Carr is below average when healthy, but there have been reports that he has a shoulder injury that could cause him to miss significant time this season. Will that force second round rookie Tyler Shough into the starting role? Or they could go with second year quarterback and fifth round pick Spencer Rattler. Either way, it’s not a good situation.

This is also a Saints team that featured the sixth worst passing defense from last year and the second worst rushing defense. Despite a few additions to the secondary, I don’t see either of those issues improving very much this season.

It feels like the Saints have held onto relevance for as long as they possibly could, but it’s time to let go and drop to the very bottom of the NFC South standings.

Atlanta Falcons: 9-8

The Falcons are a very solid team. They have a very good offensive line and some good playmakers in Drake London and Bijan Robinson. They also have an upper tier secondary with AJ Terrell, Jesse Bates and rookie interception machine Xavier Watts.

I have two big questions with the Falcons that still need to be answered. The first is Michael Penix. We got a taste of what he can do towards the end of last season and just okay. He should take a step forward this season as the day one starter, but ultimately this comes down to what you thought of Penix coming out of the draft and I was always lower on the idea of him being anyone’s franchise quarterback.

The second question is one that they have had for a while with their pass rush. To their credit, they drafted a highly regarded pass rusher with the 15th overall pick in Jalen Walker and then they traded their second round pick and their first round pick next year to move back into the first round and get James Pearce.

However, this was a calculated risk. Walker is built more like an off ball linebacker than a traditional edge rusher. He was able to out athlete his opponents in college, but I don’t believe he has the polish to come in and be a great NFL pass rusher. There is a good chance that he doesn’t work out as a tweener with no true position.

And while I very much like the talent of Pearce, he comes with even bigger question marks. Through the entire pre-draft process his character, coachability and work ethic were brought into question. Regardless of his talent, Pearce might not have the mental makeup to succeed in the NFL.

Carolina Panthers: 9-8

They have slowly built a very good offensive line and wide receiver room to surround Bryce Young with talent. We saw the second year quarterback take a step forward last year under Dave Canales and with the addition of star wide receiver Tetairoa McMillian in the draft we can expect another step this season. Projecting Young as the second best quarterback in the NFC South is a significant factor in picking this team to finish second.

However, I also really like what the Panthers are building on defense. The additions of safety Tre’von Moehrig and defensive tackle Bobby Brown will certainly help. On top of that, star defensive tackle Derrick Brown and cornerback Jaycee Horn will be back healthy to start the year. That’s a good core to build around.

Now, I do still have questions about the pass rush here. The Panthers ranked 29th in sacks last season and despite the addition of Nick Scourton in the draft (who I like) I don’t see a huge jump coming in this area. That will certainly hold them back.

I’ll call the Panthers an up and coming team who will surprise people this year. They’ll be a tough, gritty team that opponents don’t look forward to playing. With that said, they’re still a year away from really competing for the NFC South division crown.

Buccaneers: 13-4

There is one Super Bowl contender in the NFC South and that is the Buccaneers. Them being here should come as no shock. They have won the division for four consecutive years and have seen their record improve in each of the last few years. All this while they were rebuilding and retooling the roster following a lot of turnover of older players from their 2020 Super Bowl championship.

Now the Bucs are very young and very talented. They have budding young stars such as Calijah Kancey and Bucky Irving. They also have established stars who might be the best in the NFL at what they do, such as Tristian Wirfs and Antione Winfield Jr. And of course a mobile quarterback who has revived his career in Tampa Bay and deserved MVP consideration last year in Baker Mayfield.

This team has one of the five best offensive lines in the NFL, quite possibly the best. The same can be said about their wide receiver room. In terms of the offense, this might be the best in the NFL in 2025.

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We’ll see how the additions to the secondary (second round cornerback Benjamin Morrison and third round nickel Jacob Parrish) payoff, but it’s fair to expect that group to be very good with what they have. We also need to see if free agent addition Hasson Reddick can find his pass rushing form after a down year last season.

However, if these defensive questions can be answered and they go the Bucs way then they are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Even if they don’t go the Bucs way and the defense is more or less the same as it was last year, that should still be good enough to win the division. Winning the NFC South should be the minimal expectations for the Buccaneers.

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