One of the best underdog narratives in sports right now is Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield building a legitimate case to win the 2025 NFL MVP award. Currently, Mayfield is the third betting favorite to win the regular season MVP at +350 odds, sitting behind Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
After being drafted No. 1 overall by the Cleveland Browns in the 2018 NFL Draft, Mayfield led the Browns to an 11-5 record in 2020, finishing with 3,563 passing yards, 26 touchdown passes, and eight interceptions. This included a high-scoring playoff win over the team’s AFC North rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers, with Mayfield throwing for 263 yards and three touchdowns.
Afterwards, Mayfield regressed, going 6-8 as a starter in Cleveland during the 2021 season. In 2022, he landed in Carolina, going 1-5 as a starter, before being cut and released. Mayfield revived his NFL career with a clutch performance as the Los Angeles Rams’ quarterback during his first start with the team later that year.
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Tampa Bay signed Mayfield in 2023, and he led the Buccaneers to a 9-8 record, including a dominant playoff win against the Philadelphia Eagles. Mayfield was rewarded with a lucrative three-year, $100 million contract extension in March 2024.
His MVP-caliber play in 2025 has been exciting to watch, as Mayfield has mounted multiple game-winning drives to showcase his ability to perform in clutch situations. At 5-1, Tampa Bay is comfortably in the lead in the NFC South, with Mayfield recording a 66 percent completion rate for over 1,500 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and one interception.
Sports bettors in Missouri can soon place wagers on Mayfield’s NFL MVP odds when Missouri sports betting goes live on December 1st, 2025. Each NFL team will play at least five games after Missouri launches online sports betting, so odds on Mayfield’s MVP bid will continue to shift based on every quarterback’s performance across the league.
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There are a few opponents on Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule that could hand the Buccaneers a loss, instilling more value in Mayfield’s MVP betting market odds. This includes a road game against Detroit in Week 7 on Monday Night Football, as well as back-to-back road matchups against the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams in November.
If the Buccaneers go 0-3 or 1-2 during that stretch, expect Mayfield’s odds to move to +600 or longer in the NFL MVP betting market. However, a 2-1 or 3-0 record will likely shorten Mayfield’s odds to +200.
Since 2018, only four players have won the AP NFL Regular Season MVP award. It’s a star-studded list with multiple winners, including Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, and Josh Allen.
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Mayfield is firmly in contention to win NFL MVP by being placed in a tight race alongside Mahomes and Allen through six weeks of the 2025 NFL season. He’s a fierce competitor and is elevating his teammates with fantastic play as Tampa Bay’s franchise quarterback, which makes Mayfield one of the most exciting NFL MVP betting favorites in quite some time.
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