We are less than a week from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers making their first round pick in the NFL draft. Things are starting to heat up and smoking is starting to rise around certain draft prospects. However, only one of them will light the fire for the Bucs.
We all know the direction that general manager Jason Licht is likely to go in the draft. Edge rusher and linebacker are the biggest needs with defensive tackle and tight ends as secondary needs. It is extremely likely that one of these positions will be the first round pick.
Unfortunately, the draft is a bit top heavy at the Bucs biggest needs. After Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain and Ohio State linebackers Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese, there is a drop off at these positions. After that there are many players who aren’t necessarily top tier talents; many of whom could slide as far as the second round.
So if we are talking about potential second round picks such as Miami edge rusher Akheem Mesidor and Georgia linebacker CJ Allen as potential targets in the first round, then is it really that big of a stretch to project perceived second round picks as first round targets?
Reality Gap
The harsh reality that the talent gap between the 15th best player in the draft and the 50th best player in the draft isn’t huge this year. That is a big part of why the Bucs are rumored to be looking to trade down. So really, anyone in that range in talent pool could be in play for the Buccaneers.
One such player is Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. He has commonly been mocked in the second round of the draft, sometimes to the Bucs with their 46th overall pick. However, if everyone is very high on a potential second round pick then he is probably really a first round pick.
Here’s why I think Rodriguez wouldn’t be a first round reach for the Buccaneers
Rodriguez was extremely productive in college. He led the Big 12 in solo tackles in each of the last two seasons. Last year he forced 11 turnovers and 11.0 tackles for loss in addition to his 128 total tackles. This led him to being voted the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, the Bronko Nagurski award winner, the Chuck Bednarik award winner and the Dick Butkus award winner.
In terms of instincts, Rodriguez is outstanding. As a former college quarterback, he sees the game differently than anyone else and has an incredible understanding of what’s going on around him. This helps him identify running allies as well as ready the opposing quarterback in coverage.
Overlooked Physical Traits
His physical aspects are almost overlooked compared to what he brings mentally. And while some have questioned his physical tools, he erased some of those with his combine workouts. Rodriguez posted a 9.6 relative athletic score at 6 ‘1 and 231 lbs (which means he tested in the 96th percentile of all linebackers since 1987).
These workout numbers were important in terms of the Bucs. Jason Licht hasn’t used his first pick in the draft on a player whose relative athletic score was under 9.0 since 2016 with Vernon Heargreaves. There is a decade of data that tells us that if Rodriguez was going to be in play for the Buccaneers in the first round then he has to clear that 9.0 bar and he did.
We also know that Rodriguez has to have strong football character to be on the board for the Bucs. This is another part of his game that is excellent. On a defense loaded with NFL talent last year, Rodriguez was the heartbeat of that unit. The front office probably got a good understanding of why when they had their formal interview with him at the NFL combine.
Rodriguez is a first round person in terms of his intangibles. He was the smartest player on the field in college and the most productive. On top of that, he tested as one of the best athletes at the position in this year’s class.
As Good As Any
Does that make him a rare talent who will become a perennial All Pro? I wouldn’t say so. What I would say is that he’s probably as good as any prospect that the Bucs are likely to consider in the first round.
More than that, Rodriguez fits exactly what the Buccaneers are looking for. As a person. As an athlete. At their greatest position of need and with the well rounded skill set that they have lacked in the last few years.
Rodriguez almost makes too much sense to not be the player they pick in the first round.
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