The NFL draft is over and teams can now sit back and take in the new players they have added to their roster. For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, there is a lot to be happy about. However, nothing is more exciting than them landing Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain with the 15th overall pick.
Caught Slippin’
Bain was expected by many to be a top ten pick. Him slipping to 15th overall was an unexpected surprise which the Buccaneers were happy to take advantage of. I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that he can be the face of this defense.Â
It’s hard to say exactly why Bain took a draft night tumble. Most would point to his arms being below average length. Perhaps it was just the stars aligning with teams falling in love with players that fit their needs. But I can promise you that there were not 14 better players than Bain in this draft. In fact, I don’t think there were even four better players.Â
Blue Chip
Bain would be considered a blue chip prospect in any draft class. He has the making of a special player and a true number one pass rusher in the NFL. In fact, I believe he stacks up well with some of the best players in the NFL compared to when they were prospects.
So, just for fun, I went back and compared what Bain did in college to some of the great defensive ends in the NFL over the last ten years. The results were about what I expected. Bottom line, the Buccaneers drafted one of the best edge prospects in the last decade.
As a measuring stick, I chose four defensive ends who I think were similar prospects in terms of size and speed. Big body pass rushers who can put their hand in the dirt as well as stand up and rush the passer. Those players were Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson, Florida State’s Jared Verse, California’s Cameron Jordan and Eastern Michigan’s Maxx Crosby.Â
Not only were these players similar physical profiles to Bain, but they were all very productive. They took their college success and went on to be Pro Bowl caliber edge rushers in the NFL. I believe that Bain can follow that same path.
As a reminder, Bain had 9.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss in his senior year. And while his sophomore year was injury shortened, he was also very productive as a freshman with 7.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss. A great three year career from start to finish.
Of the four comparisons, three had consistent years of production over their career. Hutchinson was the only late bloomer of the group having 14.0 sacks in his senior year. Prior to that he only had 4.5 sacks over three seasons. I don’t know that this necessarily makes Bain a better prospect than the former number two overall pick, but he has certainly shown more to this point in his career than Hutchinson did.
Better Than Cam?
In terms of pure production, there is one player that Bain was clearly superior to regardless of how you want to measure it. Jordan never had more than 6.0 sacks or 12.5 tackles for loss in any of his four years of college football. Bain exceeded those numbers in two of his three years at Miami.
Again, this does not mean that Bain will come in and be a better pro than Jordan was through his career. However, if we are looking at them through the draft process, it’s hard to say that Bain wasn’t a better prospect.Â
Bain > Mad Max
The one player who Bain was clearly a better prospect than was Crosby. The Eastern Michigan star wasn’t drafted until the 4th round largely due to inconsistency and level of competition. However, we can use hindsight and know what he did in college would translate to the NFL.
When we look at things through that lens, the two had similar college football careers. Both were drafted as juniors and were similarly productive at their respective levels. In three years Bain had 20.5 sacks and 33.5 tackles for loss while Crosby had 20.0 sacks and 41.0 tackles for loss. Crosby had more tackles for loss (not surprising since he has three of the top 21 single season TFL totals in NFL history), but Bain is pretty close overall at a higher level of competition.Â
A Verse Comparison
However, the closest player in terms of production to Bain is probably Verse. While Verse only played two seasons at Florida State, if you compare them to Bain’s two healthy seasons they are very close in terms of production. Bain had 17.0 sacks and 28 tackles for loss in those two years while Verse had 18.0 sacks and 29.5 tackles for loss. However, keep in mind that Verse did play two years at lower level college football before transferring to Florida State, so he was older than Bain when he played those seasons.
Despite everything I just said, remember that stats aren’t everything. Ultimately, it’s all about what these players show they can do on the field and not in a box score. To that I would contend that Bain again compares well with these high end NFL players and what they were as prospects. In this case, the stats are fairly reflective of the type of players they are.
I think it’s reasonable to believe that the Buccaneers now have their star pass rusher. Their version of Aidan Hutchinson or Jared Verse. Time will tell how high Bain’s star will rise, but based on what they were as prospects and how similar players have ascended, it’s reasonable to believe that he will be one of the better edge rushers in the NFL over the course of his career.
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