Last October, everything was going well for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Arguably too well. Baker Mayfield was crisp in the pocket, surgically dissecting secondaries, generating the kind of MVP chatter that hadn’t seriously orbited his name before. The Bucs were 5-1, and a relatively weak NFC South already seemed wrapped up. Then, everything that could go wrong did go wrong.
From Week 10 onward, Mayfield ranked 26th in yards per attempt at 6.5 yards and 24th in EPA/play. He threw an interception in each of his final five games. A team that looked like genuine Super Bowl contenders in October staggered across the finish line at 8-9 and somehow watched five consecutive NFC South titles evaporate in the span of one catastrophic half-season.
Now, however, Mayfield gets another crack at the whip, and online betting sites once again make his side the favorites to claim divisional honors, despite last season’s collapse. The latest odds from Lucky Rebel Sportsbook currently list his Bucs as the narrow +175 favorite to win the NFC next season, closely followed by the Saints at +270. Then come the defending champion Panthers at +300, and finally the Falcons at +375.
But where does Mayfield personally rank in terms of the rest of the division’s starting quarterbacks? Here are our NFC South QB power rankings,
1. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Here’s what makes the 2026 Baker Mayfield story unlike anything else in the NFC South — or arguably the entire league. He’s in the final year of his three-year, $100 million extension with no new deal signed, playing a contract year that will define what remains of his career. And twice this season, he’ll walk into a stadium and line up against Kevin Stefanski.
Yep. The same Kevin Stefanski who jettisoned him in Cleveland after 2021. The same offensive coordinator who knew Mayfield’s tendencies, his footwork under pressure, his decision-making when a pocket collapses in the fourth quarter — and decided he’d seen enough. Now Stefanski is coaching the Atlanta Falcons, and he’ll have an entire offseason to build a defensive game plan around every flaw he personally diagnosed in his former quarterback.
Mayfield posted 3,693 passing yards, a 63.2% completion rate, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions with a 7th-place ranking in both attempts and touchdowns last season, which represent a legitimate season, not a disaster. The disaster was the fade: an interception in five straight games, a 26th-ranked yards-per-attempt figure when it mattered most, an 8-9 collapse from a 5-1 start.
New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson — whose partnership with Mayfield reportedly championed — offers a genuine creative reset. But if that second-half spiral resurfaces the moment a real pass rush arrives, then Mayfield’s spot as the best quarterback in the NFC South could well come into question. Right now, though, he remains QB1.
https://x.com/luckyrebel__/status/1978137354838663489?s=46&t=Jxc74bqcdlQ9Bjed4TR1Jw
2. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young finally started to look like a genuine franchise quarterback last season. The former Heisman winner had struggled for the first two years of his NFL career after being selected first overall by the Panthers in 2023, even losing his spot as starter to the veteran Andy Dalton midway through the 2024 season. But last term, he looked like the college sensation that took Oklahoma by storm, reeling off six game-winning drives throughout the course of the season, the most of anybody in the league.
Carolina is widely expected to exercise his fifth-year option, tying him to the franchise through 2027 — an organizational statement of faith that would have seemed delusional eighteen months after a 2-14 rookie season and a 4-8 sophomore campaign. Yet here they are, building around a quarterback whose ceiling remains genuinely unknown. Is 2025 the beginning of something real? Or is it his ceiling?
The 2025 numbers earned their respect: 3,011 yards, 63.6% completion rate, 23 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 216 rushing yards, and an 87.8 passer rating. He guided Carolina to an 8-8 record as a starter and an NFC South title at 8-9 — aided by Atlanta beating New Orleans on the final Sunday — delivering the franchise’s first postseason appearance since 2017. In the Wild Card game, he went 21-of-40 for 264 yards with a touchdown and a rushing score against the much-fancied Los Angeles Rams.
Against Atlanta specifically, he was dominant: 4-1 with 10 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. The division suited him, but it now gets tougher with Stefanski at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The playoffs in 2025 were a genuine overachievement. A deep run in 2026 requires Young to prove he can perform against the NFL’s best on a regular basis.
3. Tua Tagovailoa, Atlanta Falcons
Miami is paying $54 million to watch Tua Tagovailoa throw touchdowns for a different team. That’s just how much they wanted a clean break and a fresh start. After releasing him in March 2026 following a late-season benching — absorbing a staggering $99.2 million dead cap hit — the Dolphins are funding a quarterback who has taken his considerable talents to Atlanta on a one-year deal, competing with third-year Michael Penix Jr. for a starting berth.
The 15-interception, never-ending injury nightmare in Miami can’t be glossed over. But neither can his league-leading 4,624 throwing yards in 2023. On a one-year league minimum deal, the risk is incredibly low for a Falcons team now wielding Stefanski’s quick-rhythm passing system. Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts represent arguably the best skill-position group he’s ever been handed; now, he just needs to remain on the field for the course of the season. If he can do that, he will surely rise in these power rankings.
4. Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints
Nobody had heard of Tyler Shough in October. By January, he had the best third-down passer rating in the entire NFL — 103.3 — and three fourth-quarter game-winning drives in the final month of the regular season alone. December Shough was extraordinary. The question 2026 will answer is whether that was a beginning or a peak.
The Saints certainly believe it was a beginning. Travis Etienne Jr.’s two-year, $24 million deal — ranked among the ten best offseason moves in the league by NFL.com, specifically for its impact on Shough’s development — signals genuine organizational commitment. David Edwards added protection. Kellen Moore’s offensive system clearly suits his instincts.
After Spencer Rattler started the season and the Saints dropped six of their first seven, the switch to Shough transformed the franchise’s trajectory: nine starts, 67.6% completion rate — third-highest among qualifying rookies all-time — 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, a 91.3 passer rating. In December and January, he went 114-of-163 for 1,316 yards and earned NFL Offensive Rookie of the Month. The Saints finished 5-4 in his starts and missed the playoffs.
After all that, how can we rank him fourth of four in our power rankings? Well, he now has to do it again. If he can lead the Saints to a shock playoff appearance in 2026, then this list will look drastically different in 12 months’ time.
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