Todd Bowles enters the 2026 season on the hot seat, but that should not be the full story.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers should have fired their head coach after last season’s collapse. Instead, they gave Bowles another opportunity to reverse a downward trend that has become impossible to ignore.
The Buccaneers Should Have Moved On From Bowles
Tampa Bay appeared headed toward another playoff season after opening 2025 with a 6-2 record. Instead, the Buccaneers lost seven of their final nine games and finished 8-9.
That collapse cost Tampa Bay the NFC South title and ended its four-year reign atop the division. It also kept the Buccaneers out of the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
That alone should have forced the organization to seriously reconsider Bowles’ future. Instead, Tampa Bay decided the previous three division titles bought him another season.
At some point, past success stops excusing present failures. For Bowles, that point should have arrived last January.
Bowles’ Defense Has Not Lived Up to Expectations
Bowles was promoted from defensive coordinator after helping Tampa Bay defeat Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to win the championship.
That Super Bowl defense helped establish Bowles as one of the NFL’s respected defensive minds. Unfortunately, his defenses have not consistently reached that level since becoming the head coach.
Bowles now has complete control over Tampa Bay’s defense. That makes the unit’s continued shortcomings even harder to excuse.
The Buccaneers have repeatedly struggled to generate consistent pressure and close games defensively. Those problems have become recurring issues rather than isolated failures.
Tampa Bay’s Trajectory Is Heading the Wrong Way
The Buccaneers won a playoff game during the 2023 season. They lost in the opening round the following year before missing the postseason entirely in 2025.
That three-year progression tells a troubling story.
Tampa Bay went from advancing in January to watching the playoffs from home. Bowles now has to stop that decline before it becomes the team’s new normal.
The Buccaneers have made significant defensive additions this offseason. Those moves give Bowles fewer reasons to point toward a lack of talent.
Rueben Bain Jr. joins a defensive front that also includes Yaya Diaby, Calijah Kancey and maybe Vita Vea. Tampa Bay also added veteran linebacker Alex Anzalone and drafted linebacker Josiah Trotter.
The expectation should be simple: This defense needs to perform.
2026 Should Be Bowles’ Last Chance
Bowles enters 2026 with a 35-33 regular-season record and a 1-3 playoff record in Tampa Bay.
Those numbers are not terrible, especially considering the division success he achieved. However, they also do not justify unlimited patience.
The Buccaneers cannot afford another late-season collapse. They also cannot afford another season of defensive inconsistency under a coach whose reputation is built around defense.
Reality CheckÂ
Bowles should have been fired after the 2025 collapse. Since Tampa Bay chose to keep him, the standard for 2026 should be extremely high.
The Buccaneers need to contend for the division and return to the playoffs. More importantly, Bowles’ defense needs to become the strength it was supposed to be.
If that does not happen, Tampa Bay has no reason to continue delaying the inevitable.
The excuses are gone. The roster has been improved, the warning signs are obvious, and Bowles has had enough time.
Now, he has to prove he deserves to remain Tampa Bay’s head coach.
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