Week One Skeleton Keys To Victory: Buccaneers vs Bengals

It is officially game week across the NFL. The preseason is over and this Sunday the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be playing meaningful football. They open their season traveling up to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. 

The Bucs are currently 3.5 point underdogs. Considering the home team typically gets a three point boost, it seems like Las Vegas sees these two teams are pretty equal. However, the NFL network disagrees as 9 of their 10 analysts picked the Bengals to win in their game preview. 

It won’t be easy to go on the road and beat a team that has legitimate playoff aspirations. With that said, that’s exactly what I expect the Bucs to do. Here are my week one skeleton keys to victory. 

Establish The Run

This is the most important thing the Bucs have to do to win this game. With all the struggles that this offense had last year, the inability to manage the running game was by far the biggest issue. Success or failure will hinge on if new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson can figure out the ground game.

The Bengals have a revamped defensive line which includes big names like Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen. I’m not totally convinced that these two players are still in their prime, but regardless the Bucs offensive line is good enough to be effective here. Giving Bucky Irving a crease and isolating him against an underwhelming linebacker core will be critical for the Buccaneers.

Spread The Ball Around

Mike Evans is gone and he isn’t coming back. And while I agree with the narrative that the Bucs don’t have a true number one receiver without him, I also think they are one of the deepest and best receiver rooms in the NFL. This team is four deep with starting caliber wide receivers, so someone should always be open.

Chris Godwin or Emeka Egbuka will probably draw most of the defense’s attention. However, I think Jalen McMillan might be the best separator and will lead the team in receiving yards this year. Then there is rookie Ted Hurst who is big, fast and has an excellent catch radius. 

Against a Bengals secondary that isn’t great, Baker Mayfield just has to be the point guard. Find the open man, make a clean pass and take the layup.

Get After Burrow

I expect the Bengals to throw the ball a lot in this game. Partly because that’s what they’re built to do and partly because the Bucs look to have one of the best run stuffing defenses in the NFL. There will be a lot of focus on the Cincinnati receivers vs the Buccaneers cornerbacks and I understand why. This is their biggest mismatch advantage and the Bengals have to take advantage of it to win. 

However, every pass attempt is an opportunity for this Bucs pass rusher to hunt the quarterback. The Bengals have a middle of the road offensive line and it has resulted in Burrow getting banged up in recent years. And while right tackle Amarius Mims has developed nicely, there are still four other blockers who will have a hard time matching up with the Bucs pass rush.

Hit Burrow early and often and I don’t think he will be able to keep pace with the Bucs.

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X Marks The Spot! Week One Buccaneers X-Factor Matchup vs Bengals

This weekend the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will kick off their season in a week one matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. It’s a game that features two teams who have legitimate goals of making a playoff push this season. It should serve as a good measuring stick game for both teams.

Star Power

There is a lot of star power to talk about in this matchup. For Cincinnati they have Joe Burrow throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as well as Dexter Lawrence as their big offseason addition of the defensive side. The Bucs feature a lot of big names as well such as Vita Vea, Tristan Wirfs, Antoine Winfield Jr and Rueben Bain.

Of course, these players will have a huge impact on the outcome of this game. However, there is one matchup that I have circled that I think will sway the game one way or another. If the Bucs win this battle then I have a hard time seeing them lose the game.

X marks the spot! Here is my week one Buccaneers X-factor matchup

As we know, the Buccaneers pass rush left a lot to be desired last season. Haason Reddick was a big disappointment on the edge and the loss of David Walker before the preseason really took away a lot of the ability to pressure the quarterback. Both of these were a factor in the Bucs failures. 

Clutch Kancey

However, the biggest problem was that the defense lost their best pass rusher in week two of the season. Defensive tackle Calijah Kancey played the first two games of the year before tearing his pec. He then missed most of the regular season before returning for the final game of the year to help the Buccaneers try to make a playoff push.

It’s no coincidence that the Bucs went 3-0 in the three games that Kancey was on the field. Despite not recording a sack last season, his ability to disrupt the pocket is rare. I’d go as far as to call him one of the best interior pass rushers in the NFL.

In 2024 Kancey had 7.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss in 12 games. When he’s been on the field, blockers just can’t consistently stay in front of him. This is a player who lives in the backfield thanks to his explosiveness and skills.

Pocket Collapsing 

Interior pressure is the most difficult for opposing quarterbacks to handle. If a defender is right in your face then it’s a very different problem than pressure coming off the edge. It takes away the ability to step up in the pocket or keep your eyes down field.

This is especially true for traditional pocket passers who aren’t overly mobile. Whereas someone like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen could just tuck the ball and bail from the pocket, less mobile passers don’t have that ability. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is a prime example of that second type of quarterback.

If Kancey can be the dominant disrupter that we know him to be, then Burrow will have an uphill battle all day. The only thing that separates the star quarterback from 280 lbs of pain is the Bengals interior offensive line. This group has to contain Kancey to give Cincinnati a fighting chance. 

Fairchild, Karras, And Risner 

Dylan Fairchild, Ted Karras and Dalton Risner make up their interior from left to right. If those names don’t jump off the page to you, then I am not surprised. It’s an underwhelming group that I would describe as average at best.

Karras and Risner have had various stops over their NFL careers. Both are in their early thirties and have played for three different teams over their NFL career. I question how much high-level play is left in the tank, especially with Risner who has drifted from backup to starter over the last few seasons.

Fairchild was a rookie last season and actually showed some promise. The third round pick out of Georgia started 15 games and looks to have a solid NFL career ahead of him. However, this will be one of the most difficult matchups he has had in his young career.

Advantage Kancey 

Kancey against any of these three one vs one is an advantage for the Bucs. It will take a combined effort to slow down the young star in the making at defensive tackle. This will be all the more difficult considering that this group will also have their hands full with star nose tackle Vita Vea.

It will take great communication to know where each of these three blockers need to be and where their responsibility to the play is. They are going into their second season playing together, so they should have that aspect down. With that said, when you have a powerhouse like Vea and a quick twitch disrupter like Kancey right in your face that is much easier said than done.

Sitting here today, I’d say that this matchup favors the Buccaneers. However, when you have three blockers to stop one pass rusher, the Bengals can collectively slow Kancey down if they make that their priority. It will be a chess match of trench play and that could decide the game when it’s all said and done.