The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-2, but their season is hardly over.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently offered a reason for Tampa Bay fans to remain hopeful. However, that optimism comes with a major problem that could follow the Buccaneers all season.
Barnwell ranked the NFL’s eight winless teams by their postseason chances. He placed Tampa Bay second, behind only the Houston Texans.
His argument centers largely on the NFC South rather than Tampa Bay’s own performance.
The NFC South Is Keeping Tampa Bay Alive
Barnwell noted “nobody is ever really eliminated from contention in that division.”
That is difficult to dispute after two weeks. No NFC South team currently has a winning record, leaving Tampa Bay only one game behind first place.
The Carolina Panthers also started 0-2 last season before eventually winning the division. Tampa Bay therefore has plenty of time to recover.
But making the playoffs and becoming a legitimate contender are two very different things.
The Buccaneers can remain alive because their division is struggling. That does not mean they have solved the problems that produced their 0-2 record.
Baker Mayfield Has To Find His Game
Baker Mayfield certainly deserves his share of the criticism.
The quarterback is 44-of-62 for 398 yards, one touchdown, and one interception through two games. His PFF grade has also fallen to 57.8, which ranks sixth-lowest among qualified quarterbacks.
Mayfield has taken sacks on more than 10 percent of his dropbacks. He is also averaging only 6.4 yards per attempt.
Four lost fumbles against Cincinnati helped sink Tampa Bay in Week 1. Mayfield then struggled with his accuracy against Cleveland, including the fourth-down incompletion that ended the 23-19 loss.
Some of those problems were influenced by poor fortune. Barnwell noted that teams typically recover roughly half of their fumbles.
Two of Tampa Bay’s fumbles also came inside the red zone against Cincinnati. Those drives could have potentially ended with touchdowns instead.
“It just stings more because we’re 0-2,” Mayfield stated after the loss, per Pro Football Talk.
Still, Tampa Bay just handed Mayfield a massive contract extension. The Buccaneers need significantly more from him.
Todd Bowles’ Defense Is The Bigger Concern
Mayfield can improve, but Tampa Bay’s bigger problem may be on the other side of the football.
The Buccaneers currently rank 31st in pressure rate despite blitzing at the third-highest rate in the league. Their starting defensive line has also produced zero sacks.
That includes first-round pick Rueben Bain, who was expected to help address the team’s pass-rush problems.
This is where Barnwell’s optimism becomes difficult to embrace completely.
If Tampa Bay makes the playoffs, it will have accomplished something meaningful. Yet the same defensive issues will follow the team into January.
Bowles has built his reputation around defense. Tampa Bay therefore cannot simply wait for that unit to improve while the offense tries to overcome it every week.
A defense that struggles to generate pressure can become an anchor. It can limit how far a team travels, even when the offense eventually finds its footing.
There Is Still Something To Build Around
The Buccaneers are not completely devoid of positives.
Bucky Irving is averaging 5.4 yards per carry through two games. Tampa Bay’s offensive line is also creating the second-most yards before contact for any running back in the league.
Those developments give the offense something to build around.
Mayfield also has plenty of football remaining to correct his early-season struggles. The NFC South gives Tampa Bay additional breathing room.
But none of that changes the biggest question surrounding this team. Todd Bowles’ defense.
Making The Playoffs Isn’t The Only Goal
Barnwell is right that Tampa Bay remains alive in the NFC South. The problem is what happens if the Buccaneers actually get there.
A playoff berth would not automatically fix a defense ranked 31st in pressure rate. It would not erase the team’s inability to generate sacks from its starting defensive line.
Most importantly, it would not eliminate the concerns surrounding Bowles’ defense. Tampa Bay can absolutely climb back into the playoff race. The division has already given the Buccaneers that opportunity.
But if Bowles’ defense continues holding this team back, making the playoffs may only expose the same problems on a bigger stage. The Buccaneers get their next opportunity Sunday when the 2-0 Minnesota Vikings visit Raymond James Stadium.
At 0-3, even the NFC South’s struggles may not be enough to keep Tampa Bay’s postseason hopes alive.
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