The Giants are actually in better shape than it appears on the surface. Especially for a team that didn’t win its first game until Week 6 of the 2020 season and finished 6-10. They have a potentially dangerous offense and the defense is better than most think. It’s easy to see why Big Blue could take a step forward under Joe Judge in 2021.
Obviously, the draft can help with taking said step. If the Giants decided to trade back, they would stock up on more picks, which gives them a chance to add more quality players to their up-and-coming roster.
Could the Bucs pull something off with the G-Men?
What’s the trade?
- Tampa Bay receives pick No. 11.
- New York receives picks No. 32, No. 64, No. 217, and a future 2022 first- and fourth-round pick.
Why does this make sense?
Ian Rapoport reported earlier in the week that the Giants have had internal discussions in regard to trading back in the draft. The Bucs would have to pay a pretty hefty price to turn New York into a draft day trade partner, but the above price equals out to a solid haul for the Giants.
Receiving a first-, second-, and seventh-round pick in this year’s draft, plus a first-, and fourth-round pick in the 2022 draft would give Judge and GM David Gettleman a stockpile of picks to work with over the next two years. Many Giants fans reading this are probably wondering who in the hell the Giants would take at 32 that could come in right away and make a difference. Well, there are actually quite a few players that will be there at 32 who could help.
New York mostly needs help along the interior offensive line and at linebacker. The Giants signed guard Zach Fulton in the offseason, but he finished with the most pressures allowed out of true pass sets among guards with at least 336 pass blocking snaps, per Pro Football Focus. Per Sports Info Solutions, he had the fifth-highest blown-block adjustment percentage among guards with at least 296 pass blockings snaps. He’s also making just $1.2 million this year, so it’s fair to say that while Fulton will provide competition, he’s not locked in as a starter.
This a tremendously deep draft in terms of the interior offensive line. There will be plenty of options waiting for the Giants at 32 and later on. And there will also be solid options at linebacker, as well. Think potentially Zaven Collins, Jamin Davis, etc.. The Giants could take either position at 32 and then grab another prospect with their 42nd pick. Oh, and don’t forget: They now have pick No. 64 thanks to the Bucs.
For Tampa Bay, it’s a chance to grab one of the draft’s elite players. One that could come in and make an instant impact in 2021.
The Bucs would have their pick of the litter at EDGE/OLB and could even land an elite talent like Micah Parsons. They would also have a shot at Jaycee Horn or possibly Patrick Surtain II. Tampa Bay not only needs depth at cornerback, but Carlton Davis III could be too expensive to keep around after 2021. Sean Muphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean enter contract years in 2022, as well, so the Bucs may need someone to take over in case one of the three leave via free agency.
And, of course, the Bucs will have a chance to land any receiver not named Ja’Marr Chase at No. 11. No matter how you slice it, the Bucs have a chance to do whatever the hell they want with the 11th pick in the draft.
Yes, it’s expensive. But the whole idea is Tampa Bay will be picking at the end of next year’s draft, right? If it works out, it would be worth grabbing an elite talent who can come in and not only help out in the short term, but also be a foundational piece for the long term.
How have other teams fared in this type of trade?
As you can imagine, there aren’t any exact scenarios of this type of trade over the last 10 years. Teams normally don’t move up 21 spots in draft day trades, especially in the first round. However, there are some moves that do leave us with a general idea of how things tend to shake out.
- 2011: The Atlanta Falcons trade No. 27, No. 59, No. 124, and a future 2012 first- and fourth-round pick to the Cleveland Browns for the No. 6 overall pick in the first round.
- 2017: The Kansas City Chiefs trade No. 27, No. 91, and 2018 first-round pick to the Buffalo Bills for the No. 10 overall pick in the first round.
Ah, yes. The Falcons’ infamous draft day trade for Julio Jones was bound to make the list as an example. I can’t think of a larger jump in the first round, which show the rarity of the move. Regardless, it’s a good blueprint for how much a move like this would cost the Bucs.
Tampa Bay doesn’t have to give up a 2021 fourth-rounder because it isn’t moving into the top-7 like the Falcons. The Bucs aren’t even cracking the top-10 in this move. But, Jason Licht and co. still have to send a future fourth-rounder due to the fact that the Bucs will likely pick late in the 2022 draft. David Gettleman just said Thursday that he “isn’t getting fleeced” in a trade like this, so don’t expect him to give the Bucs any breaks.
Per Rich Hill’s updated draft trade value chart, Atlanta overspent by 85 points and 272 points per Jimmy Johnson’s chart. The Bucs would overspend by 110 points at minimum (assuming they pick dead last in the 2022 draft, again) according to Hill’s chart. It would be around 236 points if we’re going off Johnson’s chart. The average from both charts for the Falcons-Browns trade came out to a 178-point difference. For this potential move, it is a 173-point difference. So, as you can, see this is awfully close to what it would cost to move up to No. 11.
The key with making a move like this is the Bucs have to be absolutely smitten with a prospect. That’s the key with the aforementioned Falcons/Chiefs trades. They realized prospects such as Jones and Patrick Mahomes were just too good to pass up.
So far, we have no clue as to whether or not Licht and Bruce Arians are that infatuated with anyone outside of the defensive line class. They would have to be 100% sold -and be willing to pay a price- on whomever this pick turns out to be.
There’s also the fact that Gettleman has never traded back in the first round and he’s been the GM of an NFL franchise for eight drafts during his time in the NFL. Bucking that trend in itself would make history, even if it is slight, at best.
This is also about as far up as the Bucs can go without making a serious, serious investment. Moving up this high is already pushing the limits, but hey, isn’t that what a defending Super Bowl champion is supposed to do?
At the end of the day, this draft day trade is highly unlikely. But, a lot of folks also thought the Bucs winning a Super Bowl in Year One with Tom Brady and bringing back all of their starters for another run was rather farfetched, as well.
We all know how that played out. But still, I wouldn’t hold my breath on this.