After being thoroughly humiliated by New Orleans in Week 1, the Buccaneers have won two in a row and are now (2-1 ATS) against the spread.
In Week 4, the Buccaneers play against the Los Angeles Chargers (1-2), who own a 1-1-1 record against the spread. Although the Chargers took a surprising five-point loss at home against the Carolina Panthers last week, a game in which they were highly favored (-6), this is also the same team who only came up short by three in a huge underdog (+9) matchup in Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs.
Here’s what to expect:
Both Defenses Are Stingy
The Buccaneers and the Chargers both come into this week’s matchup with top 10 defenses, respectively. Through three games, LA’s defense has given up (19ppg) compared to Tampa Bay’s (20ppg). Both secondary’s rank in the top 15 in the league, with Tampa Bay having the bigger edge at overall rush defense. With the way the Buccaneers defense handled the Broncos in Denver last week, the game looks to headed to a one sided bout.
What It Will Come Down To
Brady vs Herbert.
Tampa Bays third overall rushing defense will likely keep this a one sided game between the teams two quarterbacks. The interesting thing to note is the way AND rate at which both offenses score.
The Chargers offense currently ranks near the top of the league in time spent on the field (3rd-most), yet rank near the bottom (30) in overall scoring at 17ppg. Tampa Bay’s offense, in contrast, ranks in the bottom half of the NFL for spent on the field, yet are the 14th best scoring offense at 27ppg. Its possible the Chargers and their rookie quarteback could have this exploited.
Given the heavy moneyline for Tampa Bay, currently at -360, and also taking note of a full full point swing from the opening of -6.5 to -7.5 for some sportsbooks, its a safe play to lay your coin on Tom Brady and Buccaneers today at home. Both the moneyline and spread are safe here. However, given the nature of the teams defenses, Id think about playing the UNDER 42. Good luck folks!