There’s been a lot of talk around the NFL Draft about the wide receiver class and how it’s likely to be one of the best we’ve ever seen.
Hey, I’m on board with that. But can the Buccaneers afford to spend any high picks on that position when their needs in the secondary and pass rush are so great? In my mind, only if they can trade up for an additional 1st to spend either on the receiver position or on the corner or EDGE position (in addition to a receiver with their original first rounder).
What Would The Buccaneers Have To Give Up?
So we’ll get into the merits of the Bucs taking an aggressive approach in this year’s draft. One that they usually don’t do, and that’s trading back into the 1st round to make another selection of an elite talent.
Let’s start from a pretty basic point; what would they have to give up to get back into the 1st round?
Well, according to the super helpful Pro Football Focus draft pick value chart, which assigns each pick a point value based on the supposed value of the pick slot in this year’s draft, the Bucs have a couple of options after their own pick at 26 overall that could work without having to give up a future first rounder: either KC at 32, or San Fran at 31. Any picks above those 2 slots are far too out of range for the Bucs without having to give up future compensation, a practice I would endorse avoiding at all cost.
What Would The Buccaneers Have To Give Up?
What would go into trading for either of those picks with those standards set? Well, for 31 they’d have to full-send it, as the kids say; their 2nd rounder and both of their 3rds.
For 32, they could maybe get away with including their 89th overall selection and their 4th rounder at 125 in addition to the 2nd rounder mentioned previously, but that’s a bit of a stretch.
KC’s pick at 32 is valued at 590, San Fran’s at 600. The Bucs’ picks are valued as follows:
2nd round, pick 57: 330
3rd round, pick 89: 145
3rd round, pick 92: 132
4th round, pick 125: 47
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So, for those too lazy to get out a calculator, the Buccaneers would be losing value by trading their 2nd and both 3rds to KC for their 1st (607 for the Bucs, 590 for KC), but wouldn’t quite be able to make up that value by trading their 4th instead of the second of their 3rd round picks (only a value of 522 compared to that 590 number).
San Fran’s pick makes it a bit more of an equal value (607 to SF’s 600), but even there the Bucs are still getting the short end of the stick, especially in an area they’re not usually active in; trading up for picks.
A Buccaneers Temptation?
Regardless, the Bucs might be enticed enough by a receiver like LSU man Brian Thomas, Jr. or the speedster out of Texas, Adonai Mitchell to spend their 26th overall on either of them and trading back up for a corner or EDGE player to fill some glaring needs with an elite player instead of trying to take a shot at the mid-round players of a draft class many have deemed as a bit top-heavy.
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Of course, other teams may realize this and be less willing to part with their firsts, but the good news is that since the Bucs aren’t in desperate need of any particular position, they don’t have to overpay for any of these later firsts.
If KC or San Fran are too bullish and want more than what the charts say are fair offers (and most teams have their own valuations of picks anyways, making this point even harder to truly prove), then the Buccaneers can easily pass and stand pat (a perfectly acceptable option).
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