Winston A Frontrunner For Passing Yard Title In 2019?

Winston And Sports Science

Earlier today, a collaborative article between Pro Football Talk and Pro Football Focus was published detailing the importance of sports data in today’s world. Surprisingly, a decent amount of Buccaneers were mentioned. For all the NFL stat gurus, you are all aware that PFF leads the way in advanced metric stats in the sport of football. In fact, PFF routinely provides data to over 90 NFL and college football teams annually. For those who want to take a look, here’s the link:

FMIA Guest: PFF On How Data Is Changing NFL’s Present And Future

In one particular bit from George Chahrouri, a data scientist at PFF, he goes into a list of 10 things the PFF data science community as a whole believes will happen this upcoming season. Winston came in at number six. Look at what they had to say about the 25 year-old:

We think Jameis Winston will challenge for the passing yardage title in 2019. Last year he trailed only Josh Allen in average depth of target. These throws put Winston in a position to do great things at times (he was second among quarterbacks in the percentage of throws we grade as “positive”), as well as bad things (he was 21st in limiting negatively-graded throws). New Bucs head coach Bruce Arians has a track record of succeeding with high-variance quarterbacks like Winston.  In 2015 Carson Palmer had an MVP-caliber season under Arians, posting roughly the same average depth of target as Winston in 2018 and leading the league in percentage of positively-graded throws.  With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard a very capable trio of pass catchers, look for Winston to either make good on his 2015 draft position or give the Bucs no other option but to find his replacement the following year.”

Is It Feasible?

Now, I’m all for advanced analytics, but that’s a gaudy task even for a gunslinger like Jameis. It makes you wonder if the folks over at PFF took into consideration the addition of Bruce Arians as reasoning for the bold prediction. Either way, let’s hope they’re right.

Interesting to note there about Winston having the second most “positive” throws last year. It also reaffirms the notion of Winston as a quality intermediate thrower down the field. Yet, as he ranked 21st in limiting negative throws, it proves he’s prone to turnovers as well. Everything we’ve come to know as true.

It’s tit for tat with Jameis Winston. A talented pocket-quarterback who can’t seem to let go of his “risk it” style of play has been his story the last four years. But given that Bruce Arians had Carson Palmer, who was much older and less talented than Jameis by then, playing like an MVP candidate then Tampa Bay should be hopeful in 2019. Consistency, however, will be demanded throughout a full 16 game season from Arians. Now Winston will need to put it all together.